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KnickerBlogger
Joined: 30 Dec 2004
Posts: 180
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 Posted: Tue Sep 30, 2008 12:34 pm Post subject: |
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| Eli W wrote: | | One issue could be something that's come up in past years - in calculating lgPER, team turnovers should NOT be included in the league turnover total. Instead of 34719 (lgTO with team turnovers included), try using 33283 (lgTO without team turnovers included). The pace calculations should still include team turnovers. The lgPER that I'm getting is 0.2909676318. |
With TO set to 33283, my lgPER is 0.290694586 (a difference of -0.0002730458). However now the player's values for PER is lower than B-R:
Joe Johnson,17.12
Josh Smith,18.93
Marvin Williams,14.38
I also tried dividing my turnovers for both the league PER calculation and the team by 1.04314515 (34719 / 33283) and the values are closer, but still off.
Joe Johnson,17.23
Josh Smith,19.04
Marvin Williams,14.47
Interesting thing is that Joe Johnson is low by at least .02 (rounding) but if you round Josh Smith up that much - he'll be too high.
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Eli W
Joined: 01 Feb 2005
Posts: 402
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| Posted: Tue Sep 30, 2008 2:03 pm Post subject: |
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| KnickerBlogger wrote: | With TO set to 33283, my lgPER is 0.290694586 (a difference of -0.0002730458). However now the player's values for PER is lower than B-R:
Joe Johnson,17.12
Josh Smith,18.93
Marvin Williams,14.38 |
I don't see how you're getting those numbers. Using all the values you listed I'm getting 17.27808644 for Johnson. That's from summing your one through eleven and 3PM (to get 1105.421671), dividing by minutes (to get 0.330667565), multiplying by lgPace (94.7996849), dividing by team pace (93.61752707), multiplying by 15, and dividing by lgPER (0.290694586). |
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KnickerBlogger
Joined: 30 Dec 2004
Posts: 180
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| Posted: Tue Sep 30, 2008 3:04 pm Post subject: |
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| Eli W wrote: | | KnickerBlogger wrote: | With TO set to 33283, my lgPER is 0.290694586 (a difference of -0.0002730458). However now the player's values for PER is lower than B-R:
Joe Johnson,17.12
Josh Smith,18.93
Marvin Williams,14.38 |
I don't see how you're getting those numbers. Using all the values you listed I'm getting 17.27808644 for Johnson. That's from summing your one through eleven and 3PM (to get 1105.421671), dividing by minutes (to get 0.330667565), multiplying by lgPace (94.7996849), dividing by team pace (93.61752707), multiplying by 15, and dividing by lgPER (0.290694586). |
Yeah but now my one-eleven changed because I changed the # of turnovers in the league calculations. Hence why my PER for Johnson has changed.
Looking at Justin's comments on his values for the league averages, I've tried to modify my league averages to be closer to his:
Justin
lgPace 94.798877
lgVOP 1.0475
lgFact 0.592886798
lgPER 0.290967632
My Original
lgPace 94.7996849
lgVOP 1.047480891
lgFact 0.592886798
lgPER 0.288
Changing my TO -> 33283
lgPace 94.21958054
lgVOP 1.053930169
lgFact 0.592886798
lgPER 0.290694586
So in this case lgPER is correct, but Pace & VOP is out of whack. So going back if I combine the two (and adjust for league turnovers after calculating the first three...)
lgPace: 94.7996849
lgVOP 1.047480891
lgFact 0.592886798
lgPER 0.290964438
Now to calculate:
Joe Johnson: 17.37 - 0.290964438165423
Joe Johnson,17.37
multPER = (lgPace/tmPace)*15/lgPER*(1/MIN)
lgPace: 94.7996849015317
tmpace: 93.0310833364483
VOP: 1.04748089136038
factor: 0.59288679849619
1.57142546081918E-02 = (94.7996849015317/93.0310833364483)*15/0.290964438165423*
(1/3343)
one: 316
two: 1061.39147678549
three: 284.063641456583
four: -233.588238773365
five: -652.825721932941
six: -24.6982022848142
seven: 79.3639789946358
eight: 63.7465116710989
nine: 87.9883948742719
ten: 13.8245446997564
eleven: -58.6997998470369
Still a tad high.
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Eli W
Joined: 01 Feb 2005
Posts: 402
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| Posted: Tue Sep 30, 2008 3:11 pm Post subject: |
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| Sorry if I wasn't clear, but team turnovers should be excluded only for the calculation of lgPER (the calculation of VOP and lgPace should still include team turnovers). This shouldn't affect your one through eleven values. |
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KnickerBlogger
Joined: 30 Dec 2004
Posts: 180
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| Posted: Tue Sep 30, 2008 3:29 pm Post subject: |
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So now my one + two + ... + eleven + 3PM = 1105.56658564368
which is a tad higher than your 1105.421671
Dividing by minutes = 0.330710914042381
which is a tad higher than your 0.330667565
hmmmm......
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KnickerBlogger
Joined: 30 Dec 2004
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| Posted: Tue Sep 30, 2008 3:37 pm Post subject: |
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OK looking at my original calcs & the most recent ones:
two +0.2
four -0.47
five +1.0
six -0.3
seven +0.25
eight +0.1
nine +0.18
eleven +0.14
(the others are either very close or identical)
Back to being stumped...
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Eli W
Joined: 01 Feb 2005
Posts: 402
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| Posted: Tue Sep 30, 2008 3:38 pm Post subject: |
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I just used your values from this post:
viewtopic.php?p=22694#22694
It didn't have eleven listed, so I used the value you listed in the first post of the thread, which is probably why things are off slightly.
Other than that it looks like you should match up with B-R now. |
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KnickerBlogger
Joined: 30 Dec 2004
Posts: 180
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| Posted: Tue Sep 30, 2008 3:42 pm Post subject: |
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Got it (I think). Was still using the Hollinger version for the team pace (and the Oliver one for the lgPace).
THANKS!
Joe Johnson: 17.26 - 0.290964438165423
Joe Johnson,17.26
multPER = (lgPace/tmPace)*15/lgPER*(1/MIN)
lgPace: 94.7996849015317
tmpace: 93.64
VOP: 1.04748089136038
factor: 0.59288679849619
1.56120688810856E-02 = (94.7996849015317/93.64)*15/0.290964438165423*(1/3343)
one: 316
two: 1061.39147678549
three: 284.063641456583
four: -233.588238773365
five: -652.825721932941
six: -24.6982022848142
seven: 79.3639789946358
eight: 63.7465116710989
nine: 87.9883948742719
ten: 13.8245446997564
eleven: -58.6997998470369
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Eli W
Joined: 01 Feb 2005
Posts: 402
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| Posted: Tue Sep 30, 2008 5:11 pm Post subject: |
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It's not useless, but I agree that anything beyond the first decimal probably isn't adding anything.
Actually, if anyone is looking for a project, figuring out standard errors/confidence intervals for PER could be interesting. |
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