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Eli W
Joined: 01 Feb 2005
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Statman
Joined: 20 Feb 2005
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Location: Arlington, Texas
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NickS
Joined: 30 Dec 2004
Posts: 384
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 Posted: Wed May 28, 2008 1:10 pm Post subject: |
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Very Nice!
I had been meaning to compliment you on the regression to the mean post as well, I am waiting for the follow-up to that. |
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Serhat Ugur (hoopseng)
Joined: 13 Oct 2006
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Location: Basketball Research
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| Posted: Wed May 28, 2008 3:00 pm Post subject: |
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Tremendous!
Would you consider making all these stuff dynamic so that we can check it out any time in the season?
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Mike G
Joined: 14 Jan 2005
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Location: Hendersonville, NC
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| Posted: Wed May 28, 2008 3:05 pm Post subject: |
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Some of these lists look almost random. Amir Johnson? Ronnie Price? Thaddeus Young? Leon Powe? All among the best in the world?
Among the systems compared, I'd prefer to build teams from PER or WARP, over the others.
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36% of all statistics are wrong |
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Mountain
Joined: 13 Mar 2007
Posts: 1527
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| Posted: Wed May 28, 2008 3:47 pm Post subject: |
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Mike did you publish straight regular season T rate leaders (over a minutes threshold)?
If not I'd be interested in seeing your top and bottom 10s or 25s as well.
Last edited by Mountain on Wed May 28, 2008 4:49 pm; edited 2 times in total |
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jkubatko
Joined: 05 Jan 2005
Posts: 702
Location: Columbus, OH
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| Posted: Wed May 28, 2008 3:50 pm Post subject: |
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| Mike G wrote: | | Some of these lists look almost random. Amir Johnson? Ronnie Price? Thaddeus Young? Leon Powe? All among the best in the world?. |
Well, they're in the NBA, so yeah, they're probably among the best in the world, but that's not really what you're asking.
The playing time threshold is very low here (500 minutes played), so extremely effective role players who played somewhat limited minutes are going to show up in places that might not look right.
Consider Leon Powe... Powe averaged almost 20 points and 10 rebounds per 36 minutes, shot 57% from the floor, and 71% from the line. He also had one of the highest usage rates on the Celtics and one of the lowest turnover rates. That's a pretty darn good player. The problem is he only averaged 14.4 minutes per game in his 56 games played. Raise the minimum to 1000 minutes played and Powe doesn't even qualify for the list.
How about Carl Landry...Landry averaged about 17 points and 10.5 rebounds per 36 minutes, shot 62% from the floor, and had the lowest turnover rate on the team. Just like Powe, darn good. Also just like Powe, Landry did this in reduced minutes (16.9 minutes per game in 42 games).
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Justin Kubatko
Basketball-Reference.com |
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Eli W
Joined: 01 Feb 2005
Posts: 402
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| Posted: Wed May 28, 2008 4:10 pm Post subject: |
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| hoopseng wrote: | Tremendous!
Would you consider making all these stuff dynamic so that we can check it out any time in the season? |
That's a good idea. I'll try to set something like that up, at least for the metrics that I can calculate on my own. And maybe by next season Google Spreadsheets will have made it possible to sort and filter table columns, which would make the whole thing a lot easier.
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Eli W. (formerly John Quincy)
CountTheBasket.com |
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devin3807
Joined: 11 Oct 2007
Posts: 66
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| Posted: Wed May 28, 2008 4:59 pm Post subject: |
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I just skimmed through it, but that's way cool.
I'm looking forward to going through it in more detail later, and look forward to more stuff (dynamic) in the future! |
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jemagee
Joined: 05 Nov 2005
Posts: 129
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| Posted: Wed May 28, 2008 9:03 pm Post subject: |
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Leave Thaddeus Young alone, sixers fans have very little hope of really contending for a title with sam dalembert in the center and andre miller being the only point guard on the team (and destined to leave)
Sure he played out of position, but just you wait until they draft speights and can put young at the 3 and iguodala at the two where he belongs...and maybe they can put willie green where he belongs (the nbdl is putting a team in erie soon i think) |
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Mike G
Joined: 14 Jan 2005
Posts: 3570
Location: Hendersonville, NC
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| Posted: Thu May 29, 2008 7:39 am Post subject: |
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| Mountain wrote: | Mike did you publish straight regular season T rate leaders (over a minutes threshold)?
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Yes, this link now seems to work:
http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=pjmqAMeC6D2SocmSIUiGkYA&hl=en
Team total rates might best be disregarded, as they don't seem to correspond. Team eWins approximate Pythagorean expectations by:
exW = (eW*2) - 41
| jkubatko wrote: | | ...extremely effective role players who played somewhat limited minutes are going to show up in places that might not look right... |
I understand that Powe and Landry had extremely nice per-minute rates. Amir is right there, too. And all played for some great defensive teams. So I rank the first two #16 and #18, per minute. Amir #35. Not top 10, as they are probably getting those productions vs only 42-47% starters. This is accountable.
I cringe a bit when I declare these rankings, thinking they can't be that good even. In the playoffs, they certainly haven't been the best or 2nd-best player for their teams, but pretty close in rank to their minutes.
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Mountain
Joined: 13 Mar 2007
Posts: 1527
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| Posted: Thu May 29, 2008 10:51 am Post subject: |
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| Thanks. |
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Statman
Joined: 20 Feb 2005
Posts: 241
Location: Arlington, Texas
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| Posted: Thu May 29, 2008 5:38 pm Post subject: |
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Hey Eli - If I actually have a system I do also (including a form of win shares) - you interested in including mine if I can actually find the time to update it?
It's the NBA version of the college rating I do - which can be seen in this thread. Go all the way to the last few posts for national rankings for college. I don't do win shares for college - since SoS would warp it too much.
http://pointguardu.com/cats/showthread.php?t=34084&page=6
Feel free to check out the earlier pages for each conference's player ratings.
Anyway - I could throw together an NBA rating without too much problem as soon as I free up a little time.
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Dan
My current national college player rankings (and other stuff):
http://www.pointguardu.com/f136/statmans-ratings-56243/index6.html#post355594 |
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Mountain
Joined: 13 Mar 2007
Posts: 1527
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| Posted: Thu May 29, 2008 10:15 pm Post subject: |
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Statman, a few questions.
How are the major sections of your method weighted relative to each other?
What made Landry look so good by your method last summer?
So this year you rate Anderson, Hibbert and DJ White quite highly on college performance. How do you rate or think they will do in the pros?
Bayless rates 39th? Any further comments on his season or PG capability in college or pro or overall pro performance prediction? |
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Eli W
Joined: 01 Feb 2005
Posts: 402
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| Posted: Thu May 29, 2008 11:31 pm Post subject: |
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| Statman wrote: | | Hey Eli - If I actually have a system I do also (including a form of win shares) - you interested in including mine if I can actually find the time to update it? |
Sure, I'll take a look at it.
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Eli W. (formerly John Quincy)
CountTheBasket.com |
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