APBRmetrics

JJ3384 · Joined: 14 Mar 2007 Posts: 6 Location: Orlando via Miami

Hello all,

First off, let me say its awesome that this forum exists and I hope to continue learning much of this stuff, Im very new to this but definately enthused about it!

I am a student at UCF in Orlando and this past year I got the oppurtunity to begin doing what I want to do-coach basketball-as a High School assistant for a good friend of mine. Also last year I became first aware of "APBRmetrics", mainly because I bought ESPN Insider and became a huge fan of John Hollinger's work including his PER. I didnt know, nor did I have the time, to calculate Hollinger's PER for my high school players so instead I used NBA.com's much simpler and easier PER model (although I like Hollinger's better). Our JV team started 4-3 (we are a solid team in a very very tough district), and then I wrote a paper to our coach explaining my thought on what our rotation should be, based on both what I had seen and based on PER. We then went 7-2 to finish 11-5, thanks in part to APBRmetric analysis!

Anyways, I am huge fan of this stuff and although I dont have a math background, I can still understand alot of basics and can learn it in time.

A question I have is...what kind of AP BRmetric stats would you all recommend for HS-level players? What works and what doesnt?

Ed **Küpfer** · Joined: 30 Dec 2004 Posts: 785 Location: Toronto

Most of our analysis have revolved around pro players, whose skill sets are different than those of HS players. More importantly the amount of variation is much smaller among pro players. I would take the results of various analysis with a grain of salt if you try to apply them to other populations.

That said, the methods of analysis should still be useful. You don't need any kind of math background for what you'll be looking at. You'll probably be most interested in 4 factor stats at the team level (shooting, turnovers, rebounds, FTA), and various component stats at the player level: shooting, turnovers, rebounding, FT shooting on offense; fouls, creating turnovers, rebounding, opponent shooting on the defensive end. Any analysis you do will be related to the amount of data you can get. Shooting -- offense and defense -- is the most important single stat at the pro level; I'm going to guess it's the same at the HS level. Maybe turnovers. DeanO has had some thoughts on this in the past, maybe he'll pipe up.

At the team level, improvement in shooting accuracy is the single stat that would be the most valuable to look at. At the player level, it would be something like the combination of efficiency and production -- meaning, which players can produce efficiently with higher usage rates (these are the most valuable offensive players) and which players need to be more selective with their shot in order to be efficient.

What kind of stats do you have available to you?
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HoopStudies · Posted: Sat Mar 17, 2007 11:16 am Post subject: