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APBRmetrics
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Mike G
Joined: 14 Jan 2005
Posts: 3625
Location: Hendersonville, NC
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 Posted: Wed Feb 09, 2005 5:33 pm Post subject: Antoine and Larry |
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According to b-r.com, Antoine Walker's closest similar at age 24 would be Larry Bird. Here are some of their 'advanced' stats, at that age:
player- yr. PER P.W. P.L. PW%
Walker '01 18.9 6.8 10.4 .396
LBird 1981 19.9 12.0 3.9 .756
Bird's worst year (his 2nd) seems to resemble Walker's best. If these players were exchanged (thru time 20 years), would they have similar Win-Loss records ? |
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Ed Küpfer
Joined: 30 Dec 2004
Posts: 787
Location: Toronto
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| Posted: Wed Feb 09, 2005 6:54 pm Post subject: Re: Antoine and Larry |
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| Mike G wrote: | | Bird's worst year (his 2nd) seems to resemble Walker's best. |
That's an artifact of what you choose to look at to measure similarity. My Doppelganger Machine gives the following sims for Walker's age 24 (although I don't count that as his best year):
| Code: |
(YEAR) AGE TEAM HEIGHT WEIGHT
Walker, Antoine (2000) 24 BOS 6'9 245
TOP 5 COMPS SIMSCORE
1 Person, Chuck (1988) 24 IND 6'8 241 923
2 Rogers, Rodney (1995) 24 DEN 6'7 235 918
3 Johnson, Larry (1993) 24 CHA 6'7 263 915
4 Abdur-Rahim, Shareef (2001) 24 VAN 6'9 225 915
5 Robinson, Glenn (1997) 24 MIL 6'7 230 912
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The Machine uses variable weights on different stats. The list above reflects a certain combination of weights, but there's no reason to believe that it's the right combination. Different weights bring up a different list of players -- de-emphasise %possessions used and you'll see Al Harrington and Jeryl Sasser on the list. Emphasise it even more, and Glenn Robinson and Vince Carter top the list.
However, no combination of weights that I tried gave me a player anywhere near as good as Larry Bird.
| Mike G wrote: | | If these players were exchanged (thru time 20 years), would they have similar Win-Loss records ? |
Who knows? Wins and losses measure production added, not ability. It's very difficult to project forward from production measurements, especially ones that are determined to a large extent by playing time and possessions used.
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Ed Küpfer
Joined: 30 Dec 2004
Posts: 787
Location: Toronto
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| Posted: Wed Feb 09, 2005 7:13 pm Post subject: Re: Antoine and Larry |
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Hmm. It occured to me that you calculate ages differently, and you might be talking about Walker's 2001 season, not the 2000 season that I assumed. My general point still stands, that no combination of weights gives me any player of Bird's stature as a comp. For example, here are my default weights:
| Code: | (YEAR) AGE TEAM HEIGHT WEIGHT
Walker, Antoine (2001) 25 BOS 6'9 245
TOP 5 COMPS
1 Webber, Chris (1998) 25 WAZ
2 Thomas, Tim (2002) 25 MIL
3 Ferry, Danny (1992) 25 CLE
4 Croshere, Austin (2000) 25 IND
5 LaFrentz, Raef (2001) 25 DEN |
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