APBRmetrics

Mountain · Joined: 13 Mar 2007 Posts: 1527

Wilcox "ain't right" but is he damaged / lackadaisical on his own or is he not being used enough to be motivated / efficient? Last season he was above average on TS%, is also so for career and had never been more than a fraction below 53% in any prior season. Trade him and I suspect he perks back up.

Mountain · Joined: 13 Mar 2007 Posts: 1527

#1 on team eFG% Suns have 8 main rotation guys with TS% of 57+%. Team best on TS% Amare only 3rd on usage, in a group of 4 leaders closely balanced. Nicely done and didn't need D'Antoni to do it (at least in the moment, though he probably inspired much of the system / habits) .

#2 Cavs have 5 over 57%. James the runaway leader on usage but only 5th on TS%.

Just different casts or different philosophies too?
Both very good obviously but Suns might be a bit tougher to cover.

# 6 Hornets have 3. Paul modest leader on usage over West who is not over 57% and Paul is 2nd best on team for TS%.

Shocking how far they've slipped #15 on eFG Lakers have just one over 57% TS% and it is not Kobe, not even close at 54.3%. Any Laker cockiness should be replaced by serious late night review of shot distribution.

#8 Spurs have 4 and Manu would make 5. Duncan #2 on usage and #3 on TS% while Parker is #1 on both. Pretty strong optimization.

#14 Pistons with none over 57% TS%. Last season with Billups was better but nothing special.

#15 Boston not as deep / well tuned as last season with only 3.

#26 Rockets with 2 over 57%. Both bigs Yao and Landry 3rd and 10th in usage.McGrady the highest on usage but not that elevated and 5th on TS% is concerning but not three alarm. Artest at 4th on usage and 9th on TS% compounds it though.

Dallas saved from a zero by 2 minor players.

Philly 3 but only T Young among the main weapons. 6th in usage, 2 on TS%. I'd see how far you could go with a gradual increase of usage. #1 on usage Brand at 7th on TS%. #1 on usage L Williams at 10th on TS%. That can't continue and get where they want /expect to get. Much stuff to sort out or shots to move.

**cherokee_ACB** · Joined: 22 Mar 2006 Posts: 157

Neil Paine · Joined: 13 Oct 2005 Posts: 774 Location: Atlanta, GA

OK Kevin, here's the first Durant-related post we did in response to your question... As it turns out, Durant's teammates are indeed horrible -- in fact, historically so -- but almost every "alpha dog" scorer worth his salt in the past has risen above their poor teammates' level of efficiency, often by a pretty fair amount. And many did it at age 20 (Elton Brand), 21 (Bernard King), 22 (Shareef Abdur-Rahim), etc., so people can't really use KD's age as an excuse, either.

What Durant's doing so far in 2008-09 (a lead scorer playing down to the efficiency level of his unbelievably terrible teammates) is almost unprecedented. As you point out, though, it is early in the season, and his rookie campaign wasn't nearly as notable (both in his own inefficiency and that of his teammates). Still, this is enough to seriously cast into doubt whether Durant will ever live up to the megahype that he enjoyed at Texas.

The next post will look at total offensive talent (by career OWS/min) of a player's teammates; we'll see who has had the benefit of playing with the best, and the misfortune of playing with an awful supporting cast, career-wise (Bernard King's name will certainly come up again).

Mountain · Joined: 13 Mar 2007 Posts: 1527

If you look at all the current top 10 on usage rating they have 1-2 teammates over 20 (at least at knickblogger) That appears to be all there is room for. Durant has Westbrook (trying to match on usage at 9th in league to Durant's 6th for those over 2) minutes a game) ... and Watson and Green trying hard to be the other one. That is not a pretty picture. If you want to give him a quality shooter counterpart one of these will have to transform into an efficient player or one of them will have to lose shots to make room for another who can actually be that or get moved if they can't score or won't stop shooting. Or Durant (and / or Westbrook) will have to give up some shots.

PJ is playing Presti's main picks big minutes. I assume if the GM did not want them to have so much freedom shooting he'd say something and it would get done or at least better than what is happening. At least if he was a good manager it would. I assume he is allowing this, betting on development, betting on return by year 3 or sometime. Seems questionable to me to allow Westbrook to have 28% usage despite shooting 34% eFG, I think it is excess freedom that allows bad habits to form and allows players to think they have the freedom to shoot til they get it right, even if they don't it done and shouldn't think they have this freedom.

Durant show a little reform late season but that learning seems replaced with unconscious pursuit of as many shots and as many points scored as he can. Trying to be a Jordan, Anthony or Iverson type of player for personal gratification, marketing value or a belief that is good for team wins. That is not creating a team "culture" likely to succeed in my mind without some changes, namely the ability to put the ball in the basket and to know when to pass and how to "create" for others... or the presence of a coach and GM to enforce less shooting in the absence of player willingness & ability.

Can Durant step up into this type role and be effective? It is probably too early still to say even despite the historically poor showing with this task. His 3 point shooting is up to 40% but is such a small sample even I wouldn't give it weight and he had to cut his attempts in half to do it. Maybe he could try a bit of this type adjustment with those long, on the move, difficult / low percentage for anyone 2 point shots.

Can Westbrook be an effective high or really high usage player? Wow that is either a huge leap of faith or lack of control... or wanting to make your draft picks look good (not working so well in my eyes).... or I guess it could also be giving him the chance "to be all he can be" and presumably make the tough management decisions to re-train him or move him later if necessary. This is the only way I can understand the choice made. Very different than letting a player grow into a role gradually, earning the extra time and shots with proven NBA performance not promise based on college performance or even just flashes. I guess in one perspective that turns the appearance of being willing to be bad for a long time into a hellbent desire to get where you are trying to go as fast as possible. Will it work? A real test of "teaching" methods / team development philosophy.