APBRmetrics

**cherokee_ACB** · Joined: 22 Mar 2006 Posts: 157

I've combined 82games time of possession data
http://www.82games.com/random27.htm
with KnickerBlogger.net team defensive stats
http://www.knickerblogger.net/stats/2006/d_de.htm
to estimate the average time spent per defended possession. I did the same for offense, but the results were not much interesting due to being highly correlated with overall pace.

The numbers I get, expressed as equivalent pace (possessions per minute if both offense and defense were played at the defensive pace), are:

deepak · Joined: 26 Apr 2006 Posts: 664

**cherokee_ACB** · Joined: 22 Mar 2006 Posts: 157

I've changed the stats in the post above. Previously I had assumed offensive and defensive possessions at KB.net were the same, and took the offense data. I've fixed that. I've also added the pace at offense, computed the same way. The last column is the rank for this offensive pace. Utah is still on top, Houston difference is now a bit higher.

Deepak, since I deduce these paces from the possession stats, I don't think you should correlate with them. Obviously, the faster the opponent attacks, the more possessions there are in a game for both teams.

I said before that Utah's high FT/FG partly explained the fast opponent tempo. I meant the opposite. After all, shooting FTs prevents fastbreaks and quick transition attacks. The correlation between FT/FG on offense and defensive pace is counterintuitive to me. I see this is partly due to the correlation between FT/FG and OR% (which I can't easily explain either), but it still leaves me scratching my head.

I find surprising as well the small but positive correlation between opponent OR% and defensive pace. Shouldn't OffRbs lengthen possessions? At least when looking at offense the expected negative correlation exists.

deepak · Joined: 26 Apr 2006 Posts: 664

Ben F. · Joined: 07 Mar 2005 Posts: 391

Maybe I'm misunderstanding something, but how is UTA on top of the time per defensive possession when in the 82games article you linked to they have the most time with the ball on the offensive end?

deepak · Joined: 26 Apr 2006 Posts: 664

Mark · Joined: 20 Aug 2005 Posts: 807

There is some good reasoning here that provides a better starting point for the who dictates pace or what pace to expect from a matchup question raised several times in other threads. The 4 factors provides clues but there is still choice and noise and pace is two parts.

Inducing teams to play a speed or pace-side they isnt as good for them and makes it easier to play one good for you remains an important field for more studies.

Point guard pace preference and level of coach control over point guard may be a very interesting part of it. Point guards and coaches dont allows agree on pace and pace good for a PG isnt always the best for the team and some seem to put team interests first and some will slip into personal preference if the opponent seems to give them the opportunity or do it on their own.

If really wanted to play a certain pace, I'd either bait a PG to run and gun early in game (give him half a lane to tempt his commitment but of course still try to stop; or run a lot of plays against him in particular to try to make him hot for payback) or really try to slow him down with help and ball denial, etc.