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Adjusted Points Per Shot

 
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back2newbelf



Joined: 21 Jun 2005
Posts: 279
PostPosted: Tue Mar 29, 2011 5:10 pm    Post subject: Adjusted Points Per Shot Reply with quote
Using the technique described here on shots only. No Free Throws. League average was 0.981 Points per Shot. 4 year analysis

http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/pps
http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/pps_no_to

Second version is without all shots which came directly after a turnover in the play by play

Optimal lambda for offense was 3000, 4000 for defense

Shaq and Dwight obviously look good without the Free Throws. Kyle Korver at #9? hm. A couple of shot blockers near the top on defense
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EvanZ



Joined: 22 Nov 2010
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PostPosted: Tue Mar 29, 2011 5:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
9.1 mean 1.091, right? 9.1 per 100 shots?
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back2newbelf



Joined: 21 Jun 2005
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 30, 2011 4:35 am    Post subject: Reply with quote
EvanZ wrote:
9.1 mean 1.091, right? 9.1 per 100 shots?

Assuming you're talking about Steve Nashs rating:
-the 9.1 is per 200 shots, not 100
-it's 9.1 above average(!). A player with an offensive rating of 3 (per 100) adds 3/100=0.03 to the average of 0.981, assuming we have an otherwise average lineup. Resulting predicted Points per Shot would be 0.98+0.03=1.01
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Last edited by back2newbelf on Wed Mar 30, 2011 7:06 am; edited 1 time in total
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EvanZ



Joined: 22 Nov 2010
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 30, 2011 6:50 am    Post subject: Reply with quote
Now I'm more confused than I was before. It's points per possession or per shot? And by 200 possessions, you mean it takes into account offense and defense?
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back2newbelf



Joined: 21 Jun 2005
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 30, 2011 7:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote
EvanZ wrote:
Now I'm more confused than I was before. It's points per possession or per shot? And by 200 possessions, you mean it takes into account offense and defense?

Ah &%$§, wanted to write "per shot". Everything is "per shot". The "per 200" column is just the sum of offensive and defensive impact, or the overall impact.
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EvanZ



Joined: 22 Nov 2010
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 30, 2011 7:23 am    Post subject: Reply with quote
back2newbelf wrote:
EvanZ wrote:
Now I'm more confused than I was before. It's points per possession or per shot? And by 200 possessions, you mean it takes into account offense and defense?

Ah &%$§, wanted to write "per shot". Everything is "per shot". The "per 200" column is just the sum of offensive and defensive impact, or the overall impact.


ok, got it!
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EvanZ



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PostPosted: Wed Mar 30, 2011 7:55 am    Post subject: Reply with quote
Oh, I guess I have another question. Does this include free throws?
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back2newbelf



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PostPosted: Wed Mar 30, 2011 8:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote
EvanZ wrote:
Does this include free throws?
No, it does not
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EvanZ



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PostPosted: Wed Mar 30, 2011 9:42 am    Post subject: Reply with quote
back2newbelf wrote:
EvanZ wrote:
Does this include free throws?
No, it does not


Good, that's what I was hoping (and assuming).
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