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Mike G
Joined: 14 Jan 2005
Posts: 3624
Location: Hendersonville, NC
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 Posted: Mon Feb 14, 2011 8:40 am Post subject: the Sixers |
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Philly has been playing well for quite a while, and recently they've even been winning some games. At 26-28, they hold the 7th playoff spot in the East.
Their SRS is 1.11, which is 5th in the East -- trailing only Mia, Bos, Chi, Orl -- better than Atl or NY.
They're 1-4 in overtime games. Their Pythagorean suggests 29 or 30 wins.
After a 2-10 start, they've gone 24-18.
By several measures, they have a pretty good lineup.
| Code: | Sixers Min e484 PER ws48
Iguodala,Andre 37 1.23 17.8 .145
Holiday,Jrue 35 1.08 15.1 .088
Brand,Elton 35 1.31 19.1 .171
Young,Thaddeus 26 1.06 17.4 .133
Meeks,Jodie 25 .63 12.6 .117
Turner,Evan 24 .70 10.3 .058
Williams,Lou 23 1.27 18.4 .138
Hawes,Spencer 20 1.07 12.2 .056
Nocioni,Andres 19 .72 10.6 .070
Speights,Marrees 12 1.15 14.9 .107
Battie,Tony 10 .62 9.8 .067
NBA Avg 1.00 15.0 .100
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They have no All-Stars, and nobody averaging over 15.3 points.
Are they an 'under the radar' team?
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EvanZ
Joined: 22 Nov 2010
Posts: 307
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| Posted: Mon Feb 14, 2011 10:25 am Post subject: |
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I had Iggy on my All-Star reserve list.
| Code: |
NAME ezPM100
Andre Iguodala 4.81
Elton Brand 3.27
Jodie Meeks 1.99
Louis Williams 0.96
Thaddeus Young 1.07
Marreese Speights -0.52
Evan Turner -1.16
Jrue Holiday -1.40
Tony Battie -2.33
Andres Nocioni -3.10
Spencer Hawes -4.78
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back2newbelf
Joined: 21 Jun 2005
Posts: 276
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| Posted: Mon Feb 14, 2011 10:58 am Post subject: |
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Young is 17th in 4 year approximated RAPM, better than P Gasol, Westbrook, Carter, Allen, D Williams, way way ahead of Carmelo. If you believed approximated RAPM there's probably no one who gets underrated by the media as much as him
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Mike G
Joined: 14 Jan 2005
Posts: 3624
Location: Hendersonville, NC
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| Posted: Mon Feb 14, 2011 11:54 am Post subject: |
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| back2newbelf wrote: | | Young is 17th in 4 year approximated RAPM, better than P Gasol, Westbrook, Carter, Allen, D Williams, way way ahead of Carmelo. If you believed approximated RAPM there's probably no one who gets underrated by the media as much as him |
Don't blame the media. On an average NBA team, he's just the 4th best player by PER and by WS/48. I have him 5th to 7th on his team.
By minutes allotted by his coach, he's also #4. All this suggests he's somewhere around #100 in the league.
I believe in RAPM like I'd believe in 1586 that you could sail around the world.
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Last edited by Mike G on Mon Feb 14, 2011 12:02 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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EvanZ
Joined: 22 Nov 2010
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| Posted: Mon Feb 14, 2011 12:00 pm Post subject: |
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| back2newbelf wrote: | | Young is 17th in 4 year approximated RAPM, better than P Gasol, Westbrook, Carter, Allen, D Williams, way way ahead of Carmelo. If you believed approximated RAPM there's probably no one who gets underrated by the media as much as him |
He's on my "want list" for the Warriors. I'd think about moving Dorell Wright to SG, and putting Young at SF.
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EvanZ
Joined: 22 Nov 2010
Posts: 307
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| Posted: Mon Feb 14, 2011 12:04 pm Post subject: |
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I'll probably do a post on this, but here are the guys that were most underrated by EZPM compared to RAPM (3yr averages for both):
| Code: |
RANK NAME DELTA
1 Gerald Green -8.3
2 Jannero Pargo -7.4
3 Brian Scalabrine -6.9
4 Kyrylo Fesenko -6.6
5 Greivis Vasquez -6.6
6 Oleksiy Pecherov -6.5
7 Ekpe Udoh -6.4
8 David Andersen -6.4
9 Baron Davis -6.1
10 Eduardo Najera -6.0
11 Roy Hibbert -5.8
12 Jarvis Hayes -5.8
13 DaJuan Summers -5.8
14 Malik Rose -5.7
15 Dirk Nowitzki -5.2
16 Christian Eyenga -5.2
17 Adam Morrison -5.1
18 Juan Dixon -5.1
19 Thaddeus Young -5.0
20 Darius Songaila -5.0
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Young comes in at #19.
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Mike G
Joined: 14 Jan 2005
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Location: Hendersonville, NC
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| Posted: Mon Feb 14, 2011 12:13 pm Post subject: |
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Evan, since you are the author of EZPM, how does "underrated by EZPM" lead to an inclusion on a "want list" for your team?
Several in this top 20 are no longer in the league, so #19 moves up several spots.
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EvanZ
Joined: 22 Nov 2010
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| Posted: Mon Feb 14, 2011 12:24 pm Post subject: |
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| Mike G wrote: | Evan, since you are the author of EZPM, how does "underrated by EZPM" lead to an inclusion on a "want list" for your team?
Several in this top 20 are no longer in the league, so #19 moves up several spots. |
Well, that's the 3 yr average. He's highly improved this season according to ezpm, as you can see in the previous list. He's also still really young at 22 (no pun intended).
Maybe RAPM was seeing his non-stats value earlier, and his stats-value is catching up?
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back2newbelf
Joined: 21 Jun 2005
Posts: 276
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| Posted: Mon Feb 14, 2011 12:28 pm Post subject: |
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| Mike G wrote: | | I believe in RAPM like I'd believe in 1586 that you could sail around the world. |
How much you believe in RAPM is obviously your choice. But keep in mind that adjusted +/- and simple on/off tell the same story (his On/Off the last 4 years: +8.8/+7.6/+1.5/+6.0)
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EvanZ
Joined: 22 Nov 2010
Posts: 307
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| Posted: Mon Feb 14, 2011 12:50 pm Post subject: |
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| Mike G wrote: |
I believe in RAPM like I'd believe in 1586 that you could sail around the world. |
I took this to mean that you *could* sail around the world, you just didn't know it yet.
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Crow
Joined: 20 Jan 2009
Posts: 825
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| Posted: Mon Feb 14, 2011 1:01 pm Post subject: |
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When EZPM and RAPM vary a lot there are several possible explanations:
1) greater than normal error in the RAPM estimate,
2) EZPM is not capturing a player's specific impact on team help shot defense well enough,
3) a player is getting rewarded or penalized for his "rebound impact" more or less than RAPM thinks (with EZPM giving more weight to the specific matchup rebounding results rather than looking for "team rebounding impact" as RAPM does),
4) a player helps or hurts his teammates on offense more than captured by assists and offensive rebounds in EZPM.
I haven't checked and tried to guess how many and which are involved in each player case on the list but with respect to Dirk, the most prominent name on the list, I'd say explanations 3 and 4 are likely involved and 1 and 2 might be as well.
With respect to Philly, they have been under the radar but their performance against top 8 and top 16 teams is proportionate to their current playoff rank. |
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Mike G
Joined: 14 Jan 2005
Posts: 3624
Location: Hendersonville, NC
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| Posted: Mon Feb 14, 2011 1:20 pm Post subject: |
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| EvanZ wrote: | | Mike G wrote: |
I believe in RAPM like I'd believe in 1586 that you could sail around the world. |
I took this to mean that you *could* sail around the world, you just didn't know it yet. |
I supposed that it's possible but not likely, for a given expedition.
But the vagaries of memory, sans research, gave me 1588 as the date of Magellan's departure. Of course, that's the date of the Spanish Armada's demise in the Thames. Magellan went in 1519, died in 1521 in the Philippines; the survivors limping back to Portugal in 1522.
| Quote: | | ... only 18 men out of the original 237 men were on board. |
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ferdinand_Magellan
18 of 237 is not good betting odds, nor is one ship out of five. Still, the deed was done, and we now know.
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EvanZ
Joined: 22 Nov 2010
Posts: 307
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EvanZ
Joined: 22 Nov 2010
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| Posted: Mon Feb 14, 2011 1:42 pm Post subject: |
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| Crow wrote: |
4) a player helps or hurts his teammates on offense more than captured by assists and offensive rebounds in EZPM.
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This is where looking at usage/efficiency WOWY would probably be very helpful at the unit level.
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