God is my Judge

Yards Per Play College Football Rankings 11/25/09

Methodology

This is a new system for ranking college teams, as far as I know. The basic system is to use the yards per play of the offense and given up by the defense as the metric. I am assuming that most of the time, the offense's objective is to get as many yards as possible, and the defense's objective is to give up as few yards as possible.

With that in mind, I compiled the yards gained and given up per play by all of the college football teams this year. Then, I ran an algorithm to adjust for the opponents--the system of adjusting is known as the simple rating system. The final rating is the yards/play, with the average of the opponents faced added on.

For example: Florida's raw yards per play on offense is 6.46. The average FBS team's offense gains 5.58 yards per play on offense, so Florida's yards per play above average is 0.87. The defenses Florida has faced thus far this season have avereaged giving up 0.47 yards per play less than average, so Florida's adjusted yards per play above average for their offense is 1.35. The same system is used for all teams.

The pace is calculated as the average number of plays per game divided by the average team's number of plays per game.

The source data is from http://web1.ncaa.org/d1mfb/natlRank.jsp. My next project is to figure out a more complex ranking that includes turnovers per play, adjusted for the fact that turnovers do not predict themselves well (they do not autocorrelate well).

Yards Per Play College Football Rankings

< Previous Week
Rank Prev
Team
 Offense Rank SOS Rank Defense Rank SOS Rank Total Rank SOS Rank Pace
1 1
Florida
 1.34 3 0.32 18 -1.52 5 0.01 61 2.86 1 0.33 29 93%
2 2
Alabama
 0.94 14 0.36 14 -1.76 2 0.08 39 2.70 2 0.44 17 95%
3 3
Texas
 0.63 26 0.40 10 -1.83 1 0.04 48 2.46 3 0.44 15 105%
4 4
Cincinnati
 1.84 1 -0.02 66 -0.57 28 -0.09 82 2.42 4 -0.11 73 91%
5 5
TCU
 1.08 9 0.07 53 -1.08 11 -0.31 115 2.17 5 -0.24 87 97%
6 6
Oklahoma
 0.37 37 0.33 17 -1.55 3 0.34 8 1.92 6 0.68 8 107%
7 7
Oregon
 0.61 27 0.15 38 -1.23 8 0.27 13 1.84 7 0.42 19 105%
8 9
Virginia Tech
 0.88 18 0.47 4 -0.85 16 0.04 49 1.73 8 0.51 13 95%
9 13
Penn St.
 0.84 19 0.15 40 -0.84 17 -0.20 101 1.68 9 -0.05 67 104%
10 14
Texas Tech
 0.93 16 0.25 23 -0.71 21 0.03 54 1.64 10 0.29 36 110%
11 8
Nebraska
 0.04 61 0.14 41 -1.55 4 0.23 17 1.59 11 0.37 21 98%
12 10
Southern California
 0.92 17 0.08 49 -0.62 26 0.09 35 1.54 12 0.17 46 90%
13 12
Tennessee
 0.57 29 0.42 8 -0.96 14 0.31 11 1.53 13 0.73 5 99%
14 17
Mississippi
 0.67 23 0.25 25 -0.78 19 0.04 51 1.45 14 0.29 34 100%
15 11
Ohio St.
 0.05 59 0.09 47 -1.38 7 0.05 46 1.43 15 0.14 49 105%
16 16
Georgia
 1.00 12 0.69 1 -0.43 33 0.08 36 1.43 16 0.77 4 93%
17 15
Pittsburgh
 0.97 13 -0.05 70 -0.42 34 -0.04 73 1.40 17 -0.09 70 85%
18 19
Auburn
 1.04 10 0.42 7 -0.27 41 0.04 50 1.31 18 0.46 14 104%
19 18
Boise St.
 0.69 22 -0.39 109 -0.54 30 -0.07 81 1.23 19 -0.46 102 97%
20 20
Clemson
 0.10 56 0.07 52 -1.11 9 0.15 25 1.21 20 0.22 41 98%
Rank Prev
Team
 Offense Rank SOS Rank Defense Rank SOS Rank Total Rank SOS Rank Pace
21 24
BYU
 0.94 15 -0.07 74 -0.21 47 -0.10 84 1.15 21 -0.17 77 99%
22 23
South Carolina
 0.25 46 0.47 5 -0.87 15 0.34 9 1.12 22 0.81 3 96%
23 21
Miami (FL)
 0.79 20 0.36 13 -0.26 44 -0.01 67 1.05 23 0.35 26 99%
24 25
Missouri
 0.29 43 0.15 39 -0.70 23 0.09 31 0.99 24 0.24 40 105%
25 22
LSU
 -0.03 66 0.40 9 -1.03 12 0.28 12 0.99 25 0.68 7 96%
26 27
Oklahoma St.
 0.17 52 0.09 46 -0.80 18 0.16 23 0.97 26 0.25 39 103%
27 26
Michigan St.
 0.75 21 0.07 51 -0.12 54 -0.01 66 0.87 27 0.06 55 108%
28 34
West Virginia
 0.43 34 0.04 57 -0.35 38 0.02 58 0.78 28 0.07 54 90%
29 28
Utah
 0.32 41 0.01 60 -0.45 32 -0.24 106 0.77 29 -0.23 83 100%
30 42
Arkansas
 -0.27 76 0.28 19 -1.02 13 0.45 2 0.75 30 0.73 6 96%
31 29
Stanford
 1.22 6 0.15 37 0.47 90 0.00 65 0.75 31 0.14 47 98%
32 39
South Fla.
 0.16 53 -0.30 97 -0.58 27 0.09 30 0.74 32 -0.21 80 86%
33 31
Nevada
 1.62 2 -0.42 112 0.88 106 -0.05 75 0.74 33 -0.47 103 99%
34 30
Iowa
 -0.35 81 0.12 44 -1.09 10 0.02 59 0.74 34 0.14 48 106%
35 32
Georgia Tech
 1.24 4 0.33 16 0.50 91 -0.06 79 0.74 35 0.27 38 95%
36 37
Arizona
 0.35 39 0.02 59 -0.33 40 0.08 38 0.68 36 0.10 53 91%
37 33
California
 0.60 28 0.10 45 0.06 62 -0.06 78 0.54 37 0.04 58 101%
38 40
Boston College
 -0.23 74 0.21 31 -0.76 20 -0.04 72 0.53 38 0.17 44 98%
39 41
Mississippi St.
 0.32 42 0.48 2 -0.20 48 0.35 7 0.51 39 0.83 1 99%
40 43
Oregon St.
 0.21 48 -0.14 82 -0.25 46 0.17 22 0.46 40 0.03 59 100%
Rank Prev
Team
 Offense Rank SOS Rank Defense Rank SOS Rank Total Rank SOS Rank Pace
41 44
Kansas
 0.37 36 0.37 12 -0.08 56 0.00 63 0.45 41 0.38 20 106%
42 38
Purdue
 0.17 51 0.14 43 -0.26 42 0.21 19 0.43 42 0.35 25 113%
43 35
Wisconsin
 0.18 49 0.08 48 -0.18 50 -0.04 74 0.36 43 0.04 57 98%
44 45
Notre Dame
 0.64 25 -0.05 72 0.29 78 0.40 5 0.35 44 0.35 27 101%
45 50
Houston
 1.15 8 -0.16 85 0.81 101 -0.11 85 0.33 45 -0.27 88 116%
46 36
Baylor
 0.26 44 0.47 3 -0.07 57 0.09 34 0.33 46 0.56 12 103%
47 52
Central Mich.
 0.10 55 -0.37 107 -0.17 51 -0.25 107 0.27 47 -0.61 111 99%
48 47
Kentucky
 -0.08 69 0.45 6 -0.26 43 0.23 18 0.18 48 0.67 9 99%
49 56
North Carolina St.
 0.18 50 0.07 50 0.00 61 0.04 52 0.18 49 0.11 51 100%
50 48
Connecticut
 0.39 35 0.27 21 0.21 73 0.08 37 0.17 50 0.35 28 92%
51 59
North Carolina
 -1.22 115 -0.11 79 -1.38 6 0.05 44 0.16 51 -0.06 68 97%
52 65
Troy
 0.54 31 -0.33 103 0.41 88 0.00 64 0.13 52 -0.34 91 106%
53 49
Idaho
 1.01 11 -0.32 101 0.89 107 -0.02 70 0.12 53 -0.34 92 96%
54 46
UCLA
 -0.26 75 0.14 42 -0.34 39 0.18 21 0.09 54 0.32 30 97%
55 62
Florida St.
 1.22 5 0.28 20 1.15 113 0.09 33 0.07 55 0.37 23 98%
56 61
Southern Miss.
 0.12 54 -0.35 106 0.07 63 -0.23 105 0.04 56 -0.58 110 105%
57 69
Texas A&M
 0.33 40 0.23 29 0.33 81 0.09 32 0.01 57 0.31 31 113%
58 58
Wake Forest
 -0.07 68 -0.10 78 -0.07 58 0.32 10 0.00 58 0.21 42 101%
59 73
Buffalo
 0.25 47 -0.16 88 0.26 74 -0.34 116 -0.01 59 -0.50 105 101%
60 66
Middle Tenn.
 -0.44 86 -0.58 119 -0.42 35 -0.20 100 -0.03 60 -0.78 116 110%
Rank Prev
Team
 Offense Rank SOS Rank Defense Rank SOS Rank Total Rank SOS Rank Pace
61 63
Army
 1.21 7 -0.16 87 1.24 116 -0.68 120 -0.03 61 -0.85 120 98%
62 64
Vanderbilt
 -0.75 100 0.25 24 -0.66 24 0.41 4 -0.09 62 0.66 10 111%
63 60
La.-Monroe
 -0.14 70 -0.42 113 -0.04 59 -0.30 114 -0.10 63 -0.73 115 101%
64 51
Hawaii
 0.53 32 -0.64 120 0.68 95 -0.19 98 -0.14 64 -0.83 119 100%
65 70
Michigan
 0.02 64 -0.01 64 0.19 72 0.04 53 -0.17 65 0.03 60 112%
66 55
Rutgers
 -0.68 98 -0.31 99 -0.49 31 0.08 41 -0.19 66 -0.23 84 85%
67 57
Air Force
 -0.91 105 -0.17 89 -0.71 22 -0.03 71 -0.20 67 -0.20 79 109%
68 82
Syracuse
 -0.34 79 0.26 22 -0.12 53 0.11 28 -0.22 68 0.37 22 93%
69 67
Minnesota
 -0.50 88 0.34 15 -0.25 45 0.03 57 -0.25 69 0.37 24 107%
70 71
Illinois
 0.09 57 0.24 28 0.37 85 0.08 40 -0.27 70 0.31 32 92%
71 68
Colorado St.
 0.02 63 -0.10 77 0.31 80 0.09 29 -0.28 71 -0.01 64 97%
72 86
UCF
 -0.66 96 -0.27 92 -0.37 36 -0.13 90 -0.29 72 -0.40 95 99%
73 81
Kansas St.
 -0.17 72 0.18 35 0.12 66 -0.14 92 -0.30 73 0.04 56 105%
74 84
Temple
 -0.67 97 -0.46 117 -0.35 37 -0.25 108 -0.32 74 -0.71 114 96%
75 78
UAB
 0.66 24 -0.43 115 1.03 110 -0.02 68 -0.36 75 -0.45 100 99%
76 54
Tulsa
 -0.06 67 -0.25 91 0.33 82 -0.18 96 -0.39 76 -0.43 98 106%
77 53
Fresno St.
 0.55 30 -0.32 100 0.94 108 0.13 26 -0.40 77 -0.19 78 96%
78 74
Louisville
 -0.31 77 0.17 36 0.10 65 0.27 14 -0.41 78 0.44 16 96%
79 87
Louisiana Tech
 -0.63 93 -0.34 105 -0.19 49 0.24 16 -0.44 79 -0.11 72 102%
80 75
Toledo
 0.47 33 -0.12 80 0.96 109 -0.54 119 -0.50 80 -0.65 113 105%
Rank Prev
Team
 Offense Rank SOS Rank Defense Rank SOS Rank Total Rank SOS Rank Pace
81 76
San Diego St.
 -0.36 82 -0.01 63 0.14 67 -0.21 102 -0.50 81 -0.21 81 100%
82 90
Duke
 -0.51 89 -0.06 73 -0.01 60 0.00 62 -0.50 82 -0.06 69 101%
83 91
Indiana
 0.04 60 0.21 32 0.55 94 -0.19 99 -0.51 83 0.01 61 111%
84 80
Iowa St.
 -0.16 71 0.19 33 0.35 84 0.02 60 -0.51 84 0.21 43 114%
85 72
Arizona St.
 -1.07 109 0.01 61 -0.55 29 0.26 15 -0.52 85 0.27 37 91%
86 77
Washington
 0.26 45 0.38 11 0.78 99 0.44 3 -0.52 86 0.81 2 87%
87 85
Northern Ill.
 -0.36 83 -0.45 116 0.17 69 -0.37 117 -0.53 87 -0.81 118 90%
88 95
North Texas
 -0.02 65 -0.40 110 0.52 93 -0.12 87 -0.55 88 -0.51 107 104%
89 92
Virginia
 -1.22 114 0.24 27 -0.62 25 0.05 47 -0.60 89 0.29 35 101%
90 79
SMU
 -0.31 78 -0.49 118 0.30 79 -0.13 91 -0.61 90 -0.62 112 102%
91 83
Ohio
 -0.79 103 -0.21 90 -0.16 52 -0.30 113 -0.63 91 -0.51 106 99%
92 100
East Carolina
 -0.46 87 -0.14 83 0.18 70 -0.28 110 -0.64 92 -0.42 97 101%
93 97
Northwestern
 -0.57 90 -0.03 68 0.08 64 -0.12 88 -0.65 93 -0.14 74 114%
94 88
UTEP
 0.08 58 -0.33 104 0.80 100 -0.12 89 -0.73 94 -0.45 101 105%
95 96
Navy
 -0.35 80 -0.07 75 0.41 87 -0.29 112 -0.75 95 -0.36 93 95%
96 94
Utah St.
 0.04 62 -0.28 94 0.86 103 0.05 45 -0.82 96 -0.24 85 107%
97 93
Kent St.
 -0.76 101 -0.29 95 0.15 68 -0.51 118 -0.92 97 -0.80 117 102%
98 89
Arkansas St.
 -0.63 94 -0.16 84 0.29 77 -0.28 111 -0.92 98 -0.44 99 87%
99 99
Bowling Green
 -0.18 73 0.05 55 0.74 97 -0.21 103 -0.92 99 -0.16 76 104%
100 98
Colorado
 -1.04 108 0.23 30 -0.09 55 0.20 20 -0.94 100 0.43 18 103%
Rank Prev
Team
 Offense Rank SOS Rank Defense Rank SOS Rank Total Rank SOS Rank Pace
101 101
Akron
 -0.78 102 -0.05 71 0.18 71 -0.19 97 -0.96 101 -0.24 86 97%
102 105
Marshall
 -0.71 99 -0.28 93 0.34 83 -0.12 86 -1.05 102 -0.40 96 99%
103 102
Maryland
 -0.65 95 0.19 34 0.51 92 -0.02 69 -1.16 103 0.17 45 100%
104 106
New Mexico
 -0.82 104 -0.01 65 0.45 89 -0.14 93 -1.27 104 -0.15 75 105%
105 103
Miami (OH)
 -0.95 106 -0.02 67 0.39 86 0.03 56 -1.34 105 0.01 62 112%
106 107
Wyoming
 -1.17 112 0.05 56 0.26 75 -0.05 76 -1.44 106 0.00 63 104%
107 110
Western Mich.
 -0.62 92 -0.40 111 0.88 104 -0.17 95 -1.50 107 -0.57 108 106%
108 109
Ball St.
 -1.24 117 -0.42 114 0.29 76 -0.06 77 -1.53 108 -0.48 104 97%
109 104
Fla. Atlantic
 0.36 38 0.06 54 1.89 119 -0.10 83 -1.53 109 -0.04 66 93%
110 108
Memphis
 -0.43 85 -0.09 76 1.16 114 0.07 43 -1.59 110 -0.03 65 104%
111 111
UNLV
 -0.42 84 0.00 62 1.19 115 0.13 27 -1.61 111 0.13 50 100%
112 113
La.-Lafayette
 -1.03 107 -0.30 96 0.71 96 -0.28 109 -1.74 112 -0.58 109 102%
113 112
Tulane
 -1.09 110 -0.30 98 0.88 105 0.03 55 -1.97 113 -0.27 89 97%
114 115
San Jose St.
 -1.32 118 -0.33 102 0.75 98 0.64 1 -2.08 114 0.31 33 87%
115 116
FIU
 -1.19 113 0.03 58 1.14 112 0.07 42 -2.33 115 0.10 52 108%
116 114
Washington St.
 -1.10 111 0.25 26 1.34 117 0.39 6 -2.44 116 0.64 11 98%
117 117
Rice
 -1.42 119 -0.03 69 1.05 111 -0.07 80 -2.46 117 -0.11 71 104%
118 119
Western Ky.
 -0.60 91 -0.16 86 2.02 120 -0.22 104 -2.62 118 -0.38 94 90%
119 120
Eastern Mich.
 -1.23 116 -0.13 81 1.68 118 -0.15 94 -2.91 119 -0.28 90 92%
120 118
New Mexico St.
 -2.09 120 -0.38 108 0.83 102 0.15 24 -2.91 120 -0.23 82 94%

 

 
© Daniel M., 2009